Tenacity and Public Health
December 7, 2015 1 Comment
One of the great public health victories of the past 65 years is the decline in cigarette consumption (figure below* shows per capita cig consumption; prevalence went from around 55% in 1950 to around 20% today). The current policy discussion about gun deaths (there are around 2 gun deaths from
homicide completed suicide for each suicide gun homicide via gun) strikes me as overly fatalistic about our inability to do anything about this problem. I am unsure of exactly what steps should be taken, but convinced that giving up is not what we should do.
The history of smoking is a useful frame. Across the 20th Century, we had lots of policy that inevitably lead to an increase in cigarette consumption per capita, that peaked in the 1970s and has since declined.
In this paper*, we were testing the timing of informational campaigns (Surgeon General warnings and the like; the X axis is year) to raise awareness of the dangers of smoking on observed reductions in cigarette consumption and found that there is evidence of a decline prior to such campaigns. The first policy step that lead to such a decline was not informational campaigns, but was ending the provision of free cigarettes to active duty military personnel.
However, the observed smoking prevalence of today has been produced by myriad interventions and policy; there was and is no panacea for smoking, but there have been dogged efforts to reduce smoking across the past half Century that have worked. The Table below lists some of what worked with smoking.
Gun deaths can be reduced as well, but similarly there is no panacea, and most of the success is likely to come in reduced suicide. However, nothing will change if we fatalistically assume there is nothing that can be done.
*Frank A. Sloan, V. Kerry Smith, Donald H. Taylor, Jr. Information, addiction, and “bad choices”: lessons from a Century of cigarettes. Economic Letters 2002;77(147-55)