Speaker Boehner’s plan B plan failed tonight as he announced he didn’t have the votes to pass it (which would have allowed marginal tax rates to increase for income above $1,000,000). Quite a failure for the (maybe soon to not be) Speaker of the House. However, I think this actually increases the chance that we do not go over the cliff. For what its worth, here is my prediction:

  • A bill will pass the Senate that gets ~70 votes as the paragon of gridlock steps up
  • There will be one helluva whip operation in the House (D and R), and the bill will pass with lots of D votes but it will be wild and crazy
  • If the stock market starts to melt down, it is more likely to happen next week, instead of in early January. I suspect they do it next week, perhaps with Boehner agreeing to walk as Speaker as part of a deal that ushers in Speaker Ryan for the next Congress to ‘unify’ the Party

No matter what happens, it is clear that the House Republicans are completely dysfunctional; they couldn’t even pull off a show vote. Can’t wait for the health reform ‘replace’ hearings/mark ups to start in the new Congress….

About Don Taylor
Associate Professor of Public Policy at Duke University and author of Balancing the Budget is a Progressive Priority. On twitter @donaldhtaylorjr

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