Only if the focus of attention quickly shifts to the Commerce and Ways and Means committees in the House of Representatives. That is where the heavy lifting of any health reform proposal must be done, as it was with the Affordable Care Act. As long as the Budget committee and Rep. Ryan remain the focus, the health policy aspects of the proposal are mostly talk.
Rep. Ryan this morning unveiled the beginnings of the House Budget committee’s budget resolution for the Fiscal Year 2013 budget, and here is CBOs early take, though it is important to remember that they have not analyzed the specific policies contained in the Budget Resolution.
The calculations presented here represent CBO’s assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously. Those calculations do not represent a cost estimate for legislation or an analysis of the effects of any given policies. In particular, CBO has not considered whether the specified paths are consistent with the policy proposals or budget figures released today by Chairman Ryan as part of his proposed budget resolution.
CBO has essentially said, if this budget performs exactly as Chairman Ryan says it will, this will be the top level result; CBO will eventually weigh in on whether they believe the numbers add up, but they have yet to do so.
On the big picture health policy front, Marilyn Serafini has a quick take, and notes that the FY 2013 budget sets a Medicare growth target of GDP growth plus 0.5%–more aggressive than his 2012 budget target of GDP plus 1.0%–but matching the goal set out by President Obama’s budget. So, they have agreed on an overall health care cost inflation target for Medicare, but not on the details of how to get there.
The details are really important.
That is where the Commerce and Ways and Means Committee’s come in. They have jurisdiction over health care (as does the Budget Committee) and they will have to discuss, mark up and pass very detailed health policy legislation to bring about any sort of premium support/competitive bidding policy (TIE FAQ key reading on topic) such as what is suggested in this budget. It is instructive to remember that the health policy provisions contained in last year’s budget resolution did not see the light of day in either Commerce or Ways and Means, or the Budget Committee for that matter. Nor has Rep. Ryan’s Patients’ Choice Act (post on the PCA with multiple links), which is a plan to reform health insurance for the under 65 set that he introduced on May 20, 2009 ever been marked up by one of these committees so that it could be scored by the CBO. And Republicans have been claiming to be interested in replacing the ACA, but have taken no actual (hard) steps to do so.
So, there is a bit of a pattern here: lots of noise and no follow through on the health policy details. So, unless you start hearing more of the names Fred Upton (Commerce) and Dave Camp (Ways and Means) and less of Paul Ryan, you will know the health policy provisions contained in this budget are not serious.